Is the Middle East Experiencing a Democratic Domino Effect?

The recent uprising in the Middle East opens up a whole heap of questions on whether or not the Middle East is now stable, if there will be additional countries that may fall, or even if China will be effected by the protests.  Although right now it is all speculation, it is not impossible that this would create a sort of "domino effect," if I may hearken back to the Cold War era of the U.S.  Looking at the map below, there appears to be an interesting trend.  Southern Sudan just recently voted, with a 99% approval, to declare independence.  It was done democratically.  About the same time that Southern Sudan declared independence, Tunisia, the second country west (left) of Egypt, took on 5,000 protesters, gathering to speak out against their disposition, ousted their leader.  This is what is thought to have led to Egypt's peril, hundreds of thousands protesting for a better economic disposition and a halt to human rights violations.  But it does not end there, last Thursday Yemen was in the news with protesters.  An estimated 16,000 Yemenis took to the streets to, again, protest their chronic hunger and unemployment.  Now there are reports that Jordan's leader has fired its government because of protests.

Is it possible that this could turn into a democratic domino effect?  It is quite possible.  Their are reports of protesters in Iran and now, China has cut off all information about the Egyptian protests.  How could this happen?  The only way that this could be considered a democratic domino effect is: 1) those governments which are replaced are, in fact, democratic and 2) Iran or Saudi Arabia falls.  Although the the Saudis are extreme governors, it would not be in American interests if it were to fall.  The Saudis have the majority of the oil reserves we draw from and if something were to happen to them, in the short term, we could expect our gas prices to shoot through the roof and the value of the American dollar to be worthless.

So, how likely is it that Iran will fall?  Without a military intervention it is difficult to say, but now that we know that the Stuxnet worm that infiltrated Iran's nuclear program is more than likely going to lead to a Middle East Chernobyl, it would be an opportune time to attempt a toppling of the regime and give the people the power.

If word gets out to the Chinese people, it is not likely they will do much.  China, it seems, has complete control over their people.  And the fact that some are upset with the living conditions does not mean that the majority are.  I would be surprised if China turns from there current government model, at least in an abrupt manner, anytime soon.

So what does this mean for the U.S.?  It means that the people of the Middle East are drawing closer to each other.  They are seeing how bad they have it relative to the rest of the world and they are doing something about it.  Because if this, the hate that fundamentalists share for the modernity that the U.S. stands for may be used with oil as leverage to gain control of certain markets in order to bring more money into the region.  Whatever happens, though, it will not be pretty.  Nothing is when it comes to revolutions.